Tickmill Expert Blog - Forex Traders Blog

XAUUSD H1 | Potential bullish bounce

Desmond Leong — Wed, 22 Oct 2025 11:19:00 +0000

TitleXAUUSD H1 | Potential bullish bounceTypeBullish bouncePreference:The price is falling towards the pivot at 4,057.02, which is pullback support that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and the 161.8% Fibonacci extension. A bounce from this level could lead the price toward the 1st resistance at 4,206.05, a pullback resistance level.Alternative Scenario:If the price breaks below the pivot, it could fall to the 1st support at 3,950.34, which is a pullback support that is slightly below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.

EURUSD H I Bullish bounce off pullback support

Desmond Leong — Wed, 22 Oct 2025 10:37:00 +0000

TitleEURUSD H I Bullish bounce off pullback supportTypeBullish bouncePreference: The price is falling toward the pivot at 1.1591, which is a pullback support. A bounce from this level could lead the price toward the 1st resistance at 1.1643, an overlap resistance.Alternative Scenario:If the price breaks below the pivot, it could fall to the 1st support at 1.1560, which is a pullback support.

USDJPY H1I | Bullish continuation setup

Desmond Leong — Wed, 22 Oct 2025 11:24:00 +0000

TitleUSDJPY H1I | Bullish continuation setupTypeBullish bouncePreference:The price is falling towards the pivot at 150.97, a pullback support that is slightly below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. A bounce at this level could lead the price toward the 1st resistance at 152.05, a pullback resistance.Alternative Scenario:If the price breaks below the pivot, it could fall toward the 1st support at 150.32, a pullback support that is slightly below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.

USDCHF H1 I Bullish rise off major support

Desmond Leong — Wed, 22 Oct 2025 11:21:00 +0000

TitleUSDCHF H1 I Bullish rise off major supportTypeBullish risePreference:The price has bounced off the pivot at 0.7939, an overlap support. A rise at this level could lead the price toward the 1st resistance at 0.7986, an overlap resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement..Alternative Scenario:If the price breaks below the pivot, it could fall toward the 1st support at 0.7907, a pullback support.

Daily Market Outlook, October 21, 2025

Patrick Munnelly — Tue, 21 Oct 2025 09:56:00 +0000

Daily Market Outlook, October 21, 2025 Patrick Munnelly, Partner: Market Strategy, Tickmill GroupMunnelly’s Macro Minute…Global stocks continued their upward momentum, with Asian markets climbing to record levels. Easing trade tensions and growing optimism about potential interest rate cuts fuelled positive sentiment among investors. MSCI's regional stock index broke its previous record, while Chinese stocks extended their rally ahead of a potential trade deal with the U.S. Meanwhile, a global stock index appeared ready to hit a new peak. However, Japanese equities took a hit after pro-stimulus candidate Sanae Takaichi secured a key vote to become Prime Minister. Shares of rare-earth companies surged following a U.S.-Australia partnership, although gold prices remained near historic highs. Asian markets found renewed energy after the S&P 500 recorded its biggest two-day rally since June earlier this week, with over 85% of companies surpassing earnings expectations so far. Robust corporate profits are adding momentum to a tech-driven surge, bolstered by investor anticipation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut later this month as U.S.-China trade relations show signs of improvement. On the inflation front, the Bureau of Labour Statistics is set to release September’s consumer price index this Friday, after a delay caused by the U.S. government shutdown. Originally scheduled for October 15th, the report will provide key inflation data for Federal Reserve officials ahead of their policy meeting on October 30th. In the bond market, the 10-year Treasury yield dipped below 4% as falling oil prices helped ease inflation concerns ahead of Friday’s data release. Brent crude oil hovered around $60 per barrel, nearing its lowest level since May.China's Q3 GDP grew 4.8% y/y, exceeding expectations, with 1.1% q/q growth driven by strong industrial production and exports. Retail sales slowed to 3.0% y/y, and investment fell to -0.5% y/y. Despite hitting the 5.0% GDP target, growth remains unbalanced, with domestic pressures evident in deflation (+3.7% y/y nominal growth) and a struggling housing market. Property sales (-7.6% y/y), real estate investment (-13.9% y/y), and home prices declined, while unsold inventories surged. Beijing relies on export gains to sustain growth, contingent on global demand. Restrictions on rare earths may reflect a broader strategy to sustain the investment-driven model.UK public sector net borrowing for September was reported at £20.2bn, slightly below the £20.8bn median expectation and broadly aligned with the OBR’s forecast for the month. The central government net cash requirement stood at a lower £15.9bn. This month’s data included corrections to previously reported VAT collection errors, resulting in a mild reprofiling of borrowing figures dating back to January. These adjustments reduced the cumulative PSNB overshoot to £7.2bn compared to the OBR’s profile. The total financial year-to-date deficit now stands at £99.8bn, higher than the £92.6bn forecast in March. The cash requirement performance showed further improvement, with the gap narrowing to £6.1bn from £10.2bn last month. While the deficit profile reflects a deterioration compared to last year, recent months indicate no significant worsening in the trend, as both revenue and spending align broadly with expectations. This provides some relief for Reeves, particularly due to the narrowing cash requirement—an essential metric for the Gilt market. However, the OBR’s assumptions for the later months of the year appear more optimistic and will likely hinge on post-budget developments, ensuring no immediate challenges for now.Overnight HeadlinesJapan’s Takaichi Set To Become First Female PM After Coalition DealTrump, Australia’s PM Sign Critical Minerals Agreement To Counter ChinaTrump-Putin Summit In Budapest Unsettles EuropeSupreme Court Told Trump Tariffs Are Illegal $3T TaxReeves Launches ‘Blitz’ On Red Tape To Save £6B Yearly For UK FirmsGeneral Dynamics Gets $3.5B Scout Vehicle Contract From GermanyBofA Warns Of Forced Stocks Selling If Credit Problems PersistDeutsche Bank Tries To Block Ardagh’s $10B Restructuring DealUS Regional Banks’ Earnings Under Scrutiny With Jitters Over Credit RisksUS Banks Are Hunting For Collateral To Back $20B Argentina BailoutCrown Holdings Boosts Outlook As European Beverage Volumes JumpGerman, Norwegian Ministers Court Canadian Submarine OrdersOil Steady As Traders Focus On Surplus And US-China Trade TalksUK Readies $134M To Send Forces To Ukraine After AccordFX Options Expiries For 10am New York Cut (1BLN+ represents larger expiries, more magnetic when trading within daily ATR)EUR/USD: 1.1555-60 (457M), 1.1570 (260M), 1.1580-85 (400M), 1.1600 (1.2BLN)1.1620-25 (356M), 1.1670 (295M), 1.1685-90 (635M), 1.1700 (1.3BLN)USD/CHF: 0.7945 (200M),0.8000-15 (300M)EUR/GBP: 0.8655 (300M), 0.8690 (508M)GBP/USD: 1.3270 (1.2BLN), 1.3290-1.3300 (1.1BLN)AUD/USD: 0.6495-0.6500 (1.1BLN)NZD/USD: 0.5700 (225M), 0.5770 (225M)USD/JPY: 150.85 (320M), 152.00 (1.3BLN)CFTC Positions as of the Week Ending 9/10/25 October 1, 2025: During the shutdown of the federal government, Commitments of Traders Reports will not be publishedTechnical & Trade ViewsSP500Daily VWAP BullishWeekly VWAP BullishAbove 6650 Target 6800Below 6600 Target 6400EURUSD Daily VWAP BearishWeekly VWAP BearishBelow 1.16 Target 1.1450Above 1.1650 Target 1.1850GBPUSD Daily VWAP Bullish Weekly VWAP BearishBelow 1.34 Target 1.31Above 1.3450 Target 1.3530USDJPY Daily VWAP Bearish Weekly VWAP BullishBelow 150 Trgaet 148.5Above 151 Target 154XAUUSDDaily VWAP Bullish Weekly VWAP BullishAbove 4200 Target 4500Below 4050 Target 3950BTCUSD Daily VWAP Bullish Weekly VWAP BearishAbove 107k Target 113kBelow 106k Target 100k

SP500 LDN TRADING UPDATE 21/10/25

Patrick Munnelly — Tue, 21 Oct 2025 09:22:00 +0000

SP500 LDN TRADING UPDATE 21/10/25WEEKLY & DAILY LEVELS***QUOTING ES1! FOR CASH US500 EQUIVALENT LEVELS, SUBTRACT POINT DIFFERENCE***WEEKLY BULL BEAR ZONE 6685/75WEEKLY RANGE RES 6838 SUP 6566OCT EOM STRADDLE 6602/6891NOV MOPEX 6891/6399DEC QOPEX 6303/7025DAILY ONE TIME FRAMING HIGHER 6733WEEKLY MARKET BALANCE - 6591/6809MONTHLY ONE TIME FRAMING HIGHER 6371DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE 6635/45DAILY RANGE RES 6838 SUP 67222 SIGMA RES 6894 SUP 6666VIX DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE 23.5TRADES & TARGETSLONG ON TEST/REJECT DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE TARGET DAILY/WEEKLY RANGE RESSHORT ON TEST/REJECT DAILY/WEEKLY RANGE RES TARGET DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE(I FADE TESTS OF 2 SIGMA LEVELS ESPECIALLY INTO THE FINAL HOUR OF THE NY CASH SESSION AS 90% OF THE TIME WHEN TESTED THE MARKET WILL CLOSE AT OR BELOW THESE LEVELS)GOLDMAN SACHS TRADING DESK VIEWSU.S. EQUITIES COLOR: RISK SENTIMENT TURNS NEGATIVEThe market has been influenced by de-grossing and tariff-related concerns, but there’s reassurance in the current positioning. Panic indicators are elevated but not widespread, and the medium-term growth outlook through 2026 remains constructive, supported by policy measures, balance sheet resilience, and continued AI-driven investments.Earnings season has started strongly, with approximately 12% of S&P companies reporting so far; 74% have exceeded consensus EPS by more than 1 standard deviation, compared to a long-term average of 46%. Next week, another 14% of companies are set to report, spanning AI-focused names (DLR, GEV, TSLA, IBM), consumer-oriented firms (COF, NFLX, T, TMUS, KO, LUV, PG, HCA), industrials (F, HON, LMT, NOC), and refiners (VLO). This quarter’s emphasis appears to be less on earnings growth itself and more on cash-spending priorities—how companies allocate incremental dollars toward AI capital expenditure, research and development, and shareholder returns like buybacks and dividends.Banks have delivered mixed results. Major money-center institutions such as JPM, WFC, BAC, C, and MS posted solid Q3 outcomes, while regional banks drew attention, particularly ZION, which disclosed a $50 million charge-off linked to misrepresented loans in its NDFI portfolio (loans to mortgage originators and private credit firms). Recent bankruptcies (First Brands, Tricolor, and Cantor Group) have raised concerns, but GS Research considers these issues idiosyncratic rather than systemic—fraud-related anomalies rather than broader credit cracks. However, further portfolio reviews could uncover additional cases, making a shift toward higher-quality banks prudent. Notably, KRE ETF redemptions reached $570 million on Thursday, marking the largest single-day outflow since 2021, surpassing any day during the 2023 regional banking stress and highlighting heightened sensitivity.Global equity flows last week were heavily skewed toward selling, marking the largest net outflows in over six months (since April). In the U.S., hedge funds engaged in the fastest pace of equity net selling since April, primarily through short activity, while long flows remained muted. Macro products (indices and ETFs) accounted for nearly 80% of total net selling, with U.S.-listed ETF shorts increasing by 6.1%, the largest weekly build in over five months.Following the most intense de-grossing phase since spring, quality stocks outperformed significantly. The GSP1QUAL index achieved its strongest consecutive gains since the COVID era, while speculative segments like Quantum Computing (GSX1QNTM), Non-Profitable Tech (GSX1NPTC), and Most Short (GSX1MSAL) gave up some of their recent advances. Momentum exposure in the prime brokerage book remains elevated (94th percentile over 5 years, 91st percentile over 1 year), concentrated in six-month outperformers (GSXUHMO6) that led the summer rally but may be vulnerable if de-grossing continues.On the technical side, trend-following funds remain heavily net long across major equity futures. Over the past week, CTAs have slightly reduced exposure, selling an estimated $2 billion globally. However, 1-month model-implied flows remain modest in either direction (roughly +/- $10–15 billion under +/-2 SD moves). This suggests positioning is stretched, but flow risk is limited unless there’s a significant volatility shock or spot movement. Tactically, downside pressure is muted for now, though incremental buying at current levels from this cohort is unlikely.Overall, last week’s activity drove the US Equity Sentiment Indicator into negative territory at -0.6. This shift has been a key discussion point during recent client meetings in the Middle East and Asia

GC1 & DXY Daily Trade Setups

Patrick Munnelly — Tue, 21 Oct 2025 14:37:00 +0000

GC1 & DXY Daily Trade SetupsIn this update we review the recent price action in Gold & Dollar Index futures contracts and identify the next high-probability trading opportunities and price objectives to target. To review today's video analysis, click here!

Institutional Insights: Goldman Sachs Flow of Funds 'Tricks Before Treats'

Patrick Munnelly — Tue, 21 Oct 2025 12:59:00 +0000

GS Flow of Funds: Tricks Before TreatsWatch for volatile price movements as we approach month-end: The latter half of October often experiences turbulent trading, driven by dealer short gamma positioning, reduced liquidity, and heightened activity tied to mutual fund fiscal year-end. Looking ahead, November presents a more optimistic outlook for U.S. equities. Key drivers include active corporate buybacks, $1.966 trillion in mutual fund AUM reporting year-end, favorable fund flows, and consistent retail demand.Recommended hedges:- SPX Dec 97% Put with 25 VKO, currently priced at approximately 0.53%.- USD 19Dec25 .SPX<95% & 10ySOFR

GBPUSD H4 I Bearish drop off

Desmond Leong — Tue, 21 Oct 2025 10:33:00 +0000

TitleGBPUSD H4 I Bearish drop offTypeBullish bouncePreference: The price is falling toward the pivot at 1.3359, which is a pullback support that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement. Abounce from this level could lead the price toward the 1st resistance at 1.3485, a pullback resistance.Alternative Scenario:If the price breaks below the pivot, it could fall to the 1st support at 1.3261, which is a swing low support.

Bitcoin Back Below Key Level - Bearish Risks Building

James Harte — Tue, 21 Oct 2025 09:42:00 +0000

Bitcoin Backs Off AgainFollowing a recovery bounce yesterday, BTC has come back under fresh selling pressure today with the futures market turning back below the $108,855 support. This is a worrying development for Bitcoin bulls. If price closes below the level today, this could pave the way for a furtehr losses with the 4100k mark the clear target for bears.ETF Outflows ContinueThe latest ETF data shows that institutional flows have continued to move out of Bitcoin this week. Despite the bounce yesterday, a further $40 million in net-outflows were seen, marking a fourth consecutive day of ETF outflows for Bitcoin. Monday’s outflows were driven by heavy exodus of capital from BlackRock’s IBIT which saw over $100 million in outflows. Given that BlackRock has been the main name in the BT ETF space, attracting the most investment, volatility like this is to be expected but is still a worrying sign for bulls especially if outflows persist.Institutional/Retail DemandThe disparity between spot BTC ETF flows and futures price action shows the lag that occurs sometimes when derivatives pricing reacts more instantly to shifts in market sentiment. This also highlights the variability between institutional and retail flows. As such, trends in ETF flows are more reliable as a signpost for BTC price action rather than daily shifts. However, given that we’ve seen 4 days of outflows, the overall signal here is a bearish one, reflected in the weaker price action we’re seeing today and the growing risks of a fresh move lower in BTC if we close sub $108,855 today.Technical ViewsBTCThe sell off in BTC has seen price breaking below the bull trend line from YTD lows and below key support at the $108,855 level. If price holds below this level, a test of deeper support at the $100k mark looks likely near-term, particularly with momentum studies weakening now.