SP500 LDN TRADING UPDATE 23/10/25
WEEKLY & DAILY LEVELS
***QUOTING ES1! FOR CASH US500 EQUIVALENT LEVELS, SUBTRACT POINT DIFFERENCE***
WEEKLY BULL BEAR ZONE 6685/75
WEEKLY RANGE RES 6838 SUP 6566
OCT EOM STRADDLE 6602/6891
NOV MOPEX 6891/6399
DEC QOPEX 6303/7025
DAILY BALANCE 6690/6789
WEEKLY MARKET BALANCE - 6591/6809
MONTHLY ONE TIME FRAMING HIGHER 6371
DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE 6759/69
DAILY RANGE RES 6795 SUP 6680
2 SIGMA RES 6852 SUP 6623
VIX DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE 18.5
TRADES & TARGETS
SHORT ON TEST/REJECT DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE TARGET DAILY RANGE SUP
LONG ON TEST/REJECT 6700/10 TARGET DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE
(I FADE TESTS OF 2 SIGMA LEVELS ESPECIALLY INTO THE FINAL HOUR OF THE NY CASH SESSION AS 90% OF THE TIME WHEN TESTED THE MARKET WILL CLOSE AT OR BELOW THESE LEVELS)
GOLDMAN SACHS TRADING DESK VIEWS
U.S. EQUITIES COLOUR: DE-GROSS
S&P closed down 53bps at 6,699 with a MOC of +$1B to BUY. NDX fell 99bps to 24,879, R2K dropped 145bps to 2,451, and the Dow declined 71bps to 46,590. Total trading volume reached 25 billion shares across all US equity exchanges, significantly higher than the YTD daily average of 17.2 billion shares. The VIX rose 409bps to 18.60, WTI Crude increased 346bps to $59.23, the US 10YR yield dipped 1bp to 3.94%, gold gained 34bps to 4,122, the DXY slipped 3bps to 98.90, and Bitcoin declined 285bps to $107,695.
Market sentiment remains weak, with notable underperformance across several sectors. Recent positive news failed to spark rallies in ORCL, GEV, and VRT, compounded by reports that the Trump administration is considering new export controls targeting a broad range of goods to China (Reuters). Past winners, particularly 6-month leaders (-5%, GSXUHMO6), which benefited from the rally since April lows, were hit hardest. Most Short stocks fell -4%, Quantum Computing dropped -7%, and Non-Profitable Tech slid -4%, while Quality stocks outperformed.
Momentum may face continued pressure as exposure in our Prime Book remains elevated (90th percentile 1-yr, 94th percentile 5-yr). Historically, the upcoming 3-month period is the weakest for this factor. Momentum’s strong performance this year has primarily been driven by the long leg, which could now be at risk as clients focus on protecting gains heading into year-end. (Credit to Guillaume Soria)
Activity levels on the floor were subdued, rated a 6 on a 1-10 scale. The floor finished down 287bps for sale versus a 30-day average of +48bps. Desk activity remains relatively muted, with macro products dominating the tape (ETFs consistently accounting for 30-40% of overall trading over the past week and a half). Our Baskets desk remains busy, while single-stock flow showed broad-based selling across core longs, particularly in Financials, signaling capital exiting the sector. LOs ended as net sellers (-$1.3B) with net supply across all sectors except Healthcare and Staples. HF flows were mixed, with the group finishing as small sellers and scattered supply across sectors excluding Discretionary and Staples.
Investor inquiries are elevated as they seek clarity on whether recent market action is driven by positioning/momentum or indicates a potential local peak. Desk view suggests this is more positioning-driven, with factors such as Non-Profitable Tech basket performance, government shutdown concerns, tariffs/China, and timing adding complexity to the market. - Callahan
POST BELL: TSLA fell 1%. Initial analysis shows gross margins and EBITDA are above expectations, but commentary during the call will likely carry more weight. FCF and EBITDA upside were anticipated and materialized. LRCX rose 4% as revenue guidance for the December quarter exceeded street expectations. IBM dropped 5% despite headline beats, with positive Consulting revenue growth (+2% y/y cc) offset by Software revenue growth (+9% y/y cc) and a deceleration in Hybrid (RH). MOH plunged 18% due to MCR pressures driving a significant EPS miss and downward guidance; the company noted that half of the impact stems from marketplace business challenges.
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Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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Patrick has been involved in the financial markets for well over a decade as a self-educated professional trader and money manager. Flitting between the roles of market commentator, analyst and mentor, Patrick has improved the technical skills and psychological stance of literally hundreds of traders – coaching them to become savvy market operators!