Daily Market Outlook, March 30, 2026 

Patrick Munnelly, Partner: Market Strategy, Tickmill Group

Munnelly’s Macro Minute…

Markets took a hit as stocks continued to slide, while oil prices surged amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. Iran-backed Houthi rebels joined the fray, and an expanded U.S. military presence in the region fuelled concerns of a prolonged conflict. Meanwhile, government bonds gained traction as investors sought safer havens. In Asia, tech stocks led the downturn, with South Korea’s main index tumbling 3.2%. Over in Japan, companies trading ex-dividend dragged the Nikkei 225 down by 3.4%. A broader gauge of Asian markets also dropped, as fears grew that spiking oil prices could dampen economic growth across the region. On Wall Street, S&P 500 futures showed signs of stabilisation after earlier losses, trading near flat and hinting that the selling pressure may be easing. However, across the Atlantic, European equity futures slid 0.8% from their session lows. Oil prices continued their upward march, with Brent crude climbing 2.5% to hover near $115 a barrel, though still off its intraday peak. This marks a staggering 90% increase in oil prices since the start of the year. Aluminium also saw a sharp rise, jumping as much as 6%, after reports that Iran targeted two production facilities in the Middle East as the conflict entered its fifth week. In credit markets, the cost of insuring Asian investment-grade debt rose by nearly 2 basis points on Monday, reaching approximately 94 bps—the highest level since May 2025, according to traders. Meanwhile, India’s rupee posted its biggest rally since February, buoyed by a central bank policy aimed at curbing speculation, which prompted a wave of dollar selling by local lenders.

The starting point for central bankers evaluating the inflationary effects of the Middle East conflict and the related energy shock differs significantly from the 2022 Russia-Ukraine scenario. Current inflation metrics and indicators of persistence risks are at far less troubling levels for inflation-targeting officials. However, "less troubling" does not equate to "comfortable", making it reasonable that rate cuts have been ruled out. Variations across regions at the onset of the conflict suggest a higher likelihood of an ECB rate hike, while market expectations point to a more aggressive hawkish stance from the BoE than the situation might justify. Overall, the key takeaway for central bank outlooks is that the anticipation of imminent rate hikes seems somewhat overstated—a sentiment echoed by recent comments from policymakers.

February's gloom feels recent, yet Easter arrives this week. March was dominated by the Iran war, compressing the UK data schedule. Key releases include money supply and credit (Mon), BRC shop prices, Lloyds Business Barometer, and Q4 GDP (Tue), March manufacturing PMI (Wed), and the DMP survey (Thu). The final PMI may highlight evolving sentiment on the Middle East, with expectations falling and prices rising, trends likely to persist. The Decision Makers Panel will be scrutinised for inflation outlook shifts, as the YouGov/Citi tracker already shows a jump in short-term inflation expectations from 3.3% to 5.4%. In the Eurozone, the Commission’s confidence surveys (Mon), preliminary March CPI (Tue), and manufacturing PMIs (Wed) will be reviewed, though energy price fluctuations may reshape inflation trends. In the US, a busy labor market week includes JOLTS (Tue), ADP (Wed), Challenger (Thu), and non-farm payrolls (Fri). A rebound in healthcare employment is expected post-strike, though broader economic momentum remains weak. A rise in the participation rate could push unemployment higher. Consumer confidence (Tue), ISM manufacturing/PMI, and retail sales (both Wed) round out key data. Central bank updates include minutes from March meetings of the BoJ (Mon), RBA (Tue), and BoC (Wed), offering insights into energy price impacts on inflation and monetary policy.

Overnight Headlines

• Fed Officials Signal That Rate Cuts May Be Over

• Trump Says Iran ‘Gave’ The US Most Of Its Demands In Peace Plan

• JPM, Pimco Say Bond Market Is Underestimating Slowdown Risk

• BoJ Summary Displays Hawkish Tilt With Debate On Size Of Hike

• Japan’s FX Chief Warns Of ‘Bold’ Action After Yen Tops 160

• Govt Bonds Everywhere Are Rallying On Slowdown Concerns

• Oil Gains As Houthi Attacks Raise Fears Of Iran War Escalation

• Gold Steadies As Iran War Enters Fifth Week With No End In Sight

• RBA Opens Door To Board Member Speeches In Transparency Push

• US Job Market Likely Thawed Out This Month After February Chill

• Eurozone Borrowing Costs Soar On Fears Of Fiscal Hit From Iran Shock

• French Factory Closures Jump 30% On Asia Pressure, US Tariffs

• Chevron Says Damage At Wheatstone LNG Will Hamper Restart

• Pakistan Hosts Iran Talks, With Focus On Hormuz Proposals

• DeepSeek Probes Hours-Long AI Outage After Users Report Errors

FX Options Expiries For 10am New York Cut 

(1BLN+ represents larger expiries and is more magnetic when trading within the daily ATR.)

• EURUSD Monday 30/03: 1.1450 — €870m, 1.1500 — €571m, 1.1525 — €589m, 1.1550 — €1.0bn, 1.1650 — €538m; Tuesday 31/03: 1.1450 — €630m, 1.1495 — €879m, 1.1500 — €2.9bn, 1.1525 — €938m, 1.1550 — €806m, 1.1600 — €1.7bn, 1.1650 — €1.1bn. 

• USDJPY Tuesday 31/03: 157.00 — $531m, 159.00 — $570m. 

• GBPUSD Tuesday 31/03: 1.3250 — £614m, 1.3400 — £511m. 

• AUDUSD Tuesday 31/03: 0.7950 — $1.4bn, 0.6800 — A$506m, 0.6825 — A$2.1bn, 0.6900 — A$1.0bn. 

• EURGBP Tuesday 31/03: 0.8700 — €550m

CFTC Positions as of March 27, 2026: 

• Equity fund speculators have raised their net short position on the S&P 500 CME by 2,932 contracts, bringing the total to 329,428. Meanwhile, equity fund managers have decreased their net long position in the S&P 500 CME by 11,506 contracts, reducing it to 872,951. 

• Speculators have also reduced their net short position in CBOT US 5-year Treasury futures by 325,016 contracts, now at 1,448,436. In contrast, they have increased their net short position in CBOT US 10-year Treasury futures by 44,009 contracts, totaling 641,887. A rise in net short positions was also seen in CBOT US 2-year Treasury futures, up by 155,512 contracts to 1,638,179, and in CBOT US UltraBond Treasury futures, which rose by 8,050 contracts to 279,187. Additionally, speculators have cut their net long position in CBOT US Treasury bonds futures by 2,194 contracts, leaving it at 6,570. 

• The Bitcoin net long position stands at 2,106 contracts. The Swiss franc shows a net short position of -27,097 contracts, while the British pound's net short position is -58,422 contracts. The euro has a net long position of 9,279 contracts, and the Japanese yen reports a net short position of -62,806 contracts.

Technical & Trade Views

SP500

• Daily VWAP Bearish

• Weekly VWAP Bearish

• Above 6800 Target 6920

• Below 6500 Target 6150

EURUSD 

• Daily VWAP Bearish

• Weekly VWAP Bearish

• Above 1.1675 Target 1.1730

• Below 1.15 Target 1.1350

GBPUSD 

• Daily VWAP Bearish

• Weekly VWAP Bearish

• Above 1.35 Target 1.3650

• Below 1.3485 Target 1.3150

USDJPY 

• Daily VWAP Bearish

• Weekly VWAP Bullish

• Above 159 Target 161.50

• Below 155 Target 152

XAUUSD

• Daily VWAP Bearish

• Weekly VWAP Bearish

• Above 4300 Target 4750

• Below 4250 Target 4000

BTCUSD 

• Daily VWAP Bearish

• Weekly VWAP Bearish

• Above 79.5k Target 81.5k

• Below 78k Target 53k