Daily Market Outlook, November 6, 2025 

Patrick Munnelly, Partner: Market Strategy, Tickmill Group

Munnelly’s Macro Minute…

Asian investors' risk sentiment recovered, with markets bouncing back from the sharp losses witnessed in the previous session. This rebound was fuelled by stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data, which reignited investor confidence and drew attention back to indexes hovering near record highs. Concerns over overvalued technology stocks appear to have eased for now, as Wednesday's steep selloff didn’t escalate into widespread panic. In Hong Kong, shares of Pony Ai and WeRide saw declines as the Chinese autonomous driving companies made their market debut. The two firms collectively raised close to $1.2 billion through their share offerings. Later today, several Federal Reserve officials are expected to deliver speeches, potentially providing insights into the future trajectory of U.S. interest rates. The resilience of the American economy has already prompted traders to scale back expectations for a December rate cut. Markets now estimate a 61% likelihood of a 25-basis-point reduction, down from around 70% earlier in the week. Meanwhile, on the trade front, U.S. Supreme Court justices expressed scepticism on Wednesday regarding the legality of former President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs. This case, which carries significant implications for the global economy, represents a critical challenge to the extent of Trump's authority in imposing such measures.

The ADP report showed mixed results: overall job growth exceeded expectations (+42k vs. 30k median, up from a revised -29k), but small and medium firms cut jobs (-10k, -21k) for the third month, while large firms added +73k hires. Regionally, the West gained 40k jobs, while the Northeast lost 12k. Sector-wise, trade, transport, and utilities (+47k) and education and health (+25k) led gains, but professional/business services (-15k) and information (-17k) declined. The labour market reflects concentrated gains amid broader weakness, consistent with this year’s trend. While prior Fed rate cuts addressed labour concerns, current data suggests no immediate need for further cuts. Regional Fed surveys show a slow but stable labour market, and absent inflation data, a December cut seems unlikely.

The sentiment surrounding today’s UK MPC meeting suggests a more balanced 50/50 split between a rate cut and a hold, diverging from the market's pricing, which leans towards a ~25/75 probability for a cut/hold. The argument for holding rates stems from the presence of four hawkish members (Mann, Pill, Greene, Lombardelli), who are highly unlikely to support a cut, particularly in light of the latest quarterly Inflation Attitudes survey. For a rate cut to occur, all five remaining members would need to align in favour. Among them, Taylor is the most likely to support a cut, based on recent comments. Dhingra is also expected to vote for a cut, largely due to her consistent stance. Ramsden could lean dovish, but Breeden and Bailey remain uncertain. On balance, it is anticipated that the Governor will opt for no change, acknowledging the hawks’ concerns about inflation persistence. This decision may aim to maintain their support for potential Bank Rate reductions in 2026, when CPI is expected to decline from its current peak. However, the decision remains finely poised. Additionally, note that the Bank of England is revising its communication format. Each MPC member will now have a dedicated paragraph in the minutes to explain their individual stance, and the Monetary Policy Report (MPR) format is undergoing changes.

Overnight Headlines

  • Weaker Data To Test BoE Resolve Ahead Of Autumn Budget

  • BoE Set For Tight Rates Decision As Inflation Softens And Budget Looms

  • Reeves Poised To Unveil Plan For EV Drivers To Pay Per Mile Charges At Budget

  • Reeves Set To Spare UK Banks From Budget Tax Raid

  • EU Commission Weighs Appeasing Parliament On Budget

  • Pfizer Matches Novo Bid For Obesity Biotech Metsera As Takeover Battle Rages

  • Trump’s Tough Day At Supreme Court Puts Tariffs In Jeopardy

  • Nvidia Boss Says China ‘Will Win’ AI Race With US

  • Arm Holdings Profit Climbs On Record Demand

  • Qualcomm Swings To Q4 Loss On Tax Charge; Revenue Rises

  • Snap Shares Jump After $400M Deal With AI Start-Up Perplexity

  • US To Cut Flights 10% At 40 Airports Amid Shutdown Disruption

  • France To Ban Shein As Retailer Opens Flagship Store In Paris

  • Bank Of Canada To Slash 10% Of Jobs As Carney Targets Public Sector

  • Chicago Outlook Cut One Notch By S&P On Deficits, Pension Woes

  • Saudis Cut Main Oil Price To Asia As Signs Of Caution Emerge

  • Japan’s Ruling Bloc Partner Warns Against Mixed-Message BoJ Hike

FX Options Expiries For 10am New York Cut 

(1BLN+ represents larger expiries, more magnetic when trading within daily ATR)

  • EUR/USD: 1.1400 (2.0BLN), 1.1415-25 (1.5BLN), 1.1440-50 (1.3BLN)

  • 1.1490-00 (2.7BLN), 1.1505-15 (944M), 1.1525 (530M), 1.1550 (2.0BLN)

  • 1.1570-80 (908M), 1.1590-00 (2.5BLN), 1.1615-20 (393M)

  • USD/JPY: 152.45-50 (1.0BLN), 152.75 (501M), 153.00-08 (1.64BLN)

  • 153.50 (427M), 153.70-75 (400M), 153.80-90 (1.1BLN), 154.00-05 (1.6BLN)

  • 154.15-20 (783M), 154.35-40 (598M), 154.50-60 (1.8BLN)

  • USD/CHF: 0.8000-10 (818M), 0.8060 (300M), 0.8150 (650M)

  • EUR/CHF: 0.9290-95 (509M). EUR/JPY: 177.00 (654M)

  • GBP/USD: 1.3000 (283M), 1.3100 (862M), 1.3200 (653M)

  • EUR/GBP: 0.8740-50 (729M), 0.8800-10 (1.04BLN), 0.8815-25 (364M)

  • AUD/USD: 0.6490-00 (693M), 0.6525-30 (856M), 0.6550-55 (773M)

  • 0.6565-75 (398M), 0.6580-85 (400M), 0.6600-05 (1.1BLN), 0.6620-25 (587M)

  • NZD/USD: 0.5730 (650M), 0.5775-85 (569M)

  • USD/CAD: 1.4050 (277M), 1.4070-85 (731M), 1.4100-10 (300M)

  • USD/ZAR: 17.40 (208M), 17.50-55 (427M)

CFTC Positions as of the Week Ending 9/10/25 

  • October 1, 2025: During the shutdown of the federal government, Commitments of Traders Reports will not be published

Technical & Trade Views

SP500

  • Daily VWAP Bearish

  • Weekly VWAP Bullish

  • Above 6833 Target 6932

  • Below 6817 Target 6630

EURUSD 

  • Daily VWAP Bearish

  • Weekly VWAP Bearish

  • Above 1.1534 Target 1.16

  • Below 1.1507 Target 1.14

GBPUSD 

  • Daily VWAP Bearish

  • Weekly VWAP Bearish

  • Above 1.3120 Target 1.3178

  • Below 1.3087 Target 1.2923

USDJPY 

  • Daily VWAP Bullish

  • Weekly VWAP Bullish

  • Above 153.98 Target 154.73

  • Below 153.93 Target 152.32

XAUUSD

  • Daily VWAP Bearish

  • Weekly VWAP Bearish

  • Above 3980 Target 4089

  • Below 3969 Target 3849

BTCUSD 

  • Daily VWAP Bearish 

  • Weekly VWAP Bearish

  • Above 104.k Target 108.1k

  • Below 104.k Target 97.4k